YOU KNOW YOU MISCALCULATED WHEN…
Day 5 of 21 Days to a Writing Habit
As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its sixth day, it is very clear by now that with few exceptions the world has galvanized against Putin’s gamble. Had Russian truly rolled into Ukraine and toppled the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy within 48–72 hours, before there was any time for severe political and/or economic sanctions to be levelled then, and only then, would he have a chance to get away with his ‘special military operations.’ However, we are well past this window and the Russian military has failed to achieve any strategic objective.
The sanctions that have been announced against Russia, its government and the oligarchs are the most severe in history, and they are only getting more severe day by day.
So you know you miscalculated when…
When Switzerland, which holds the world’s oldest policy of neutrality dating back to 1815, announces it will forego its neutrality and adopt the European Union sanctions against Russia.
When Sweden, which maintains a neutral and non-aligned foreign and security policy, announces it will send 5,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine in addition to field rations, helmets and body shields.
When Germany, which has a post-WWII practice of not sending lethal aid to conflict zones, announces it will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger man-portable anti-air defence systems. It has also authorized other European countries to send German-made lethal weapons systems to Ukraine.
When Russia has been excluded from the Society for Worldwide International Financial Telecommunications, or SWIFT, which essentially cuts Russia off from the global financial system, joining Iran as the only two countries ever sanctioned. In 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and was threatened with SWIFT sanctions it said it would be a declaration of war.
When the United Nations holds an emergency special session for the first time in 40 years and for only the eleventh time ever. This follows Russia’s veto of a UN Security Council resolution which would have ended Russian military presence in Ukraine. Note that this is only the second UN ESS regarding Europe. The first was in 1956 when the then Soviet Union invaded Hungary to quash a rebellion against the pro-Soviet government. The difference between Hungary and Ukraine is that Hungary in 1956 invited Soviet assistance, whereas Ukraine in 2022 has called Russia’s aggression an invasion.
When Canada announces that it will ban all Russian crude oil imports. Although Canada has not imported any Russian crude since 2019 it sends a powerful message that there are no limits to the sanctions Putin could face. The value of 2019 imports valued over half a billion Canadian dollars.
When a majority of ship owners are halting calls to Russian ports due to the volatility of shipping rates to load at Russian ports. Russia produces 10% of the world’s oil supply, 70% of which is exported. At roughly 25% of the country’s GDP, the energy sector is a significant revenue source needed to wage war.
It has only taken Russia five days to achieve this.
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